If China makes a major shift toward market incentives, the decentralization of choice will promote efficiency in production, but it might also encourage energy-intensive consumption, as individuals gain disposable income. Their hypothesis was controversial but convincing enough to produce action by the United States and eight other countries to ban the use of CFCs in aerosol sprays in the late 1970s (unquestionably the most marginal of their uses). Other industries destroy forest both as an integral part of the manufacturing process and as a by-product. Natural changes cannot explain todays global warming. Livestock and Crop Economics The strategy that is generally most immediately profitable when land is plentiful and labor scarce is one of extensive and often transitory use. Some researchers argue that a secular change in basic values is occurring in many modern societies. Obversely, which short-term changes are likely to disappear over time? Fossil fuel burning can be subdivided according to parts of the world (countries, developed and less-developed world regions, etc. Such knowledge will allow social scientists to set worthwhile research priorities until more precision is available. Significantly, the suggestion that CFCs might possibly be damaging, to the ozone layer did not have much effect on uses that were much more central to the industrial economy: food refrigeration, ambient air conditioning, and electronic manufacturing solvents. Current impact is not the only criterion of importance. Cows and sheep produce large amounts of methane when they digest their food. 5. An analysis anchored in the critical physical or biological phenomena can identify research traditions whose relevance to the study of environmental change might otherwise be overlooked. Global environmental change often seems to be the most carefully examined issue of our time. Such research should begin by acknowledging that the environmental consequences of population growth depend on other variables. Compared with research on the causes of population growth, very little research has been devoted to understanding its consequences for environmental quality. If both continue to increase at the recent historic rate of 4 percent per year, the Chinese contribution to global CO2 emissions will quadruple in less than 40 years and surpass that of the United States, presuming that the latter also follows recent trends. Although data are available only for a few such economies, among these are four of the five least energy-productive economies in the world. 01:04. What determines whether economic growth will or will not increase CO2 emissions? The 4 human causes of climate change include: burning fossil fuels, farming, deforestation and cement production. (1990); for N2O, National Academy of Sciences (1991a). The Role of Human For example, the world oil market is a global system in that changes in oil production anywhere reverberate through the system and may have global environmental impacts, for example, by changing the rate of consumption of oil or other fuels. These contradictory arguments, all plausible, can be weighed only by research that is specific (e.g., which technology, in which society, at what time) and that takes into account the other major social forces that cause or are affected by technological progress. And the environmental effects of technology look quite different depending on the time scale being considered or the state of environmental knowledge when the analysis is done. For example, current fertility and mortality patterns suggest that world population will continue to increase well into the next century. Uncertainties for the future projections are very large. Climate change can cause new patterns of pests and diseases to emerge, affecting plants, animals and humans, and posing new risks for food security, food safety and human health. The Role of Population Growth It is easy to see Brazil's average population growth of 2.8 percent in the 1970s as the source of land hunger and migration, raising the Amazon population by 6.3 percent annually (Browder, 1988). tions for managing wastes because it is much easier to establish clear, enforceable property rights in nonrenewable resources and because such property rights permit creation of markets that provide price signals of changing resource scarcity and incentives to take future as well as current resource values into account. Third, government action may supersede the market (e.g., Burton, 1978; Coase, 1960), leading to inefficiencies, for instance, excessive and uneconomic cutting in U.S. national forests, or profligate use of coal in China due to artificially low prices and a production quota system that gives no premium for quality. Under these conditions the relative gap between per capita income in developing and developed countries would narrow, but the absolute gap would increase substantially. Moreover, because CFCs have contributed to social changes that are built into national building stocks, transportation systems, and even political structures (congressional representation from the Sun Belt, for example), the indirect effects of CFCs on climate change may be very difficult to reverse, even if substitutes are found that do not harm the ozone layer. Residential coal stoves often have only 10-18 percent efficiency (Xi et al., 1989). Dire warnings of imminent human-induced climate disaster are constantly in the news but predictions of the end of the world have been made throughout history and have never yet come true. a Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. al scale. To make projections, it would be very useful to have detailed studies of the effects on emissions of increased income in other countries that have undergone recent spurts of economic growth, such as Taiwan and South Korea, even though these countries have no major impact on the global carbon dioxide balance. Breweries and restaurants were the heaviest users of this stored winter ice, which was sometimes shipped hundreds of miles to provide refrigeration. zonian land use in a positive way (Schmink and Wood, 1987:50; but see Price, 1989). It seems that past some point, consumers use their economic resources to purchase well-being that is decreasingly dependent on material goods (see Inglehart, 1990). Beef was much less popular in preserved form, so those who ate it preferred to purchase it freshly slaughtered from local butchers. Historical data show that successful. A third concerns the commonly alleged short-sightedness of corporate decisions about the environment. For places: economic growth has been more dependent on fossil-fuel energy in China than in other countries, even other developing countries; the causes of deforestation in Brazil are distinct from its causes in other countries. However, researchers should be aware of their limitations and should occasionally test their analyses against a variety of scenarios of future human contributions to global change. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website. There is some research on the effects of population growth on economic growth and social welfare, though the topic is still subject to some controversy (much of this literature is summarized in National Research Council, 1986). Some analysts trace the roots of environmental problems to the system of free-enterprise competition that underlies markets (e.g., Schnaiberg, 1980). The future of China's energy use can be analyzed in the terms of the accounting equation: population growth, economic development, and changes in energy intensity or productivity. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book. The encouraging policy success at Montreal in 1987 was dramatic, but may have depended on special circumstances: there were only about two dozen CFC producers worldwide, and reductions threatened few of the existing infrastructures that had developed over the previous century and a half. They also show that studies of driving forces and their relationships have been and can be done (National Research Council, 1990b; Turner, 1989). Also, the long-term effects on the global environment of a technology such as refrigeration with CFCs have been much different from the effects over a shorter time spannot only because of increasing use of the technology, but also because of the secondary effects of migrations made. If excellent data sets are compiled, the problem of connecting levels of analysis may attract leading disciplinary researchers to the topic of global change to build theory that would aid in understanding it while advancing their own fields. Fiscal incentives for livestock raising have largely dried up since 1985, but the cattle population has continued to grow at an annual rate of 8 percent (Schneider, 1990), suggesting that profit can now be made without subsidies, partly from the appreciation of land values (Binswanger, 1989). However, the relationship between economic growth and environmental stress is not fixed. References. b Source: Shine et al. In addition, policy responses, particularly mitigation responses, require understanding of the activities that drive global change at the level at which the responses will be made. There is a critical need for support of the research that would constitute that field. Total effects of greenhouse gases projected for 2025-2050 varied by a factor of 5 from the "accelerated policies" scenario, which projected the lowest level of emissions, to the "business-as-usual" scenario, which projected the highest. Since 1750, humans have increased the abundance of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by nearly 50 percent. A quick technical fix may well be all that is needed, in which case the refrigeration-intensive (and energy-intensive and greenhouse gas-intensive) food and architectural systems of the twentieth century First World will continue to proliferate around the planet, with countries of the tropics presumably adopting them with even greater reason and greater intensity than those living in temperate regions. The unique institutional and political history of Brazil has helped determine the particular development pattern there, a pattern significantly different from that of tropical forest development in Zaire or Indonesia (Allen and Barnes, 1985; Brookfield et al., 1991; Lal et al., 1986). oped countries. We briefly outline the evidence supporting and qualifying claims that each class of variable is an independent influence on global environmental change. If environmental politics in China decentralizes and democratizes, an opening will appear for local environmental movements, which have been prevented from forming horizontal linkages in the past (Ross, 1987). The Amazonian case illustrates the difference between intensive and extensive patterns of land use in tropical forests. In general, the species hardest hit are likely to be the ones with large area requirements, narrow ranges, or value to humans for food, medicine, or timber, yet the entire taxonomic spectrum may suffer major losses.3 Some threatened species may be important to the region's economy and culture, some are used far beyond the Amazon Basin, and some have potential value to humans that is not yet known. The Amazonian forest has long been inhabited by peoples that used a mixture of these strategies to support their economies. Global aggregate analysis may show a very different picture from analyses at lower levels of aggregation. So how can we trust that the computer models scientists use to make predictions are reliable? Damming rivers to generate electricity for aluminum refining and for urban power inundates huge areas because of the low relief of the land. The other large-population, low-income countries of the world, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, get 2.5 to 6 times as much production as China out of each unit of energy they use (data from World Bank, 1989). Many analysts focus on broad systems of beliefs, attitudes, and values related to the valuation of material goods. Dependence on refrigeration has created social pressures to resolve the ozone problem by technical means, a strategy that could have paradoxical results: the solution to the ozone problem could accelerate social processes that cause climate change. Industry is more energy-intensive than other productive sectors, and China devotes a greater proportion of its recorded energy consumption to industry and is more dependent on coal in that sector, than most other countries (see Table 3-8). The lessons of this story about CFCs and the ozone hole are several. moving from a concern with important changes in the environment to the identification of the human activities that most seriously affect those changes. Note: Production estimates are from Watson et al. First, the costs of the transactions necessary to resolve environmental problems in an optimal fashion may be prohibitively high because of the costs of collecting information, for example on the net present value to all affected of the future effects of resource use (e.g., Coase, 1960; Baumol and Oates, 1988). The effects of economic development on the proximate causes of global change appear to be contingent, among other things, on. Climate Change Paper Kaitlyn Yinger 4-17-15 Erin Reese Biology 122: 10:30-12:45 Climate Change What really causes climate change? There is sometimes reluctance to take experts' words for anything and so we would like to be shown the evidence. In Par state, for instance, small farms cultivate an average of 50 percent of their area, while farms of over 1,000 ha cultivate only 26 percent (Hecht, 1981). Aggregate analysis at the global level examines human-environmental relationships on the basis of measures of the entire planet. The most widely used definition of biological diversity includes three levels: genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity (Norse et al., 1986; U.S. Office of Technology Assessment, 1987). Table 3-4 illustrates one way to allocate the carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuel consumption to the major purposes (end uses) of those fuels. State action can also have large unintended effects on the environment. Natural science can help social science by providing an improved picture of the trunk and limbs, and particularly by improving estimates of the uncertainties of their sizes. The work can be eased by using the impact criterion: analysts might reasonably choose to move from trunk to limb to branch to twig only until the contribution falls below a preset level of impact for the time period of concern. Social science knowledge is needed to choose accounting procedures to suit specific analytic purposes. most everyone assumes that existing technologies can be sustained more or less unaltered by introducing some other gas as an alternative to Thomas Midgley's 1931 invention. It is possible to make such a division in numerous ways. Fire removes cut brush and trees, and there is no need to turn the soil, weed frequently, irrigate, drain, or terrace. This is ironic, because it is concern with the consequences that motivates much support for research on the causes of growth. Some assert that increased environmental pressures are associated with materialistic values of modern society (e.g., Brown, 1981), implying that materialism is amplified in the social atmosphere of the Western world. By the first quarter of the twentieth century, the delivery of perishable foods throughout the United Statesand international food shipments as wellhad come to depend on mechanical refrigeration. inefficiency, in that efforts to improve efficiency in either mining or consumption look uneconomic with current prices. Species with large area requirements are disproportionately affected when forest clearing is fragmented, as it typically is in Amazonia. The threatened ecosystems provide regionally important services, such as creating soils, moderating temperatures, reducing soil erosion, cleaning the air and water, and preventing flood and drought (Smith, 1982). Our analysis uses the estimates of radiative forcing because they are far less uncertain. By drastically lowering the rate at which food decayed and hence making perishable crops available to consum-. Some species, such as rosewood, are selectively eliminated from the forest for economic reasons. These greenhouse gas emissions have increased the greenhouse effect and caused Earths surface temperature to rise. For that reason, the signing of the Montreal Protocol is a risky predictor of how other international negotiations may turn out when the response to global change seems to require greater alterations in historical practice, when there are many millions of responsible actors, or when the costs and benefits of change are less evenly distributed around the planet. So economic growth necessarily stresses the environment directly by increasing quantities of wastes and indirectly by depleting resources. Countries such as the United States, Canada, Argentina, and Australia had such policies during rapid development phases, and other countries have followed the example. Population growth is a good example of feedbacks between human actions and the global environment. National economic policies, as well as environmental and energy policies, can favor particular kinds of technological innovation and thus hasten or forestall environmental degradation. More intensive cultivation means that less forest must be displaced to meet human needs. Larger landholdings bring more extensive use. Cultural values, short-sightedness, and self-interestedness can both cause and respond to other major social forces, such as political-economic institutions and technological change. Another criticism comes from those who argue that population, though it may be a driving force of change, is not necessarily a driving force of degradation (Boserup, 1981; Simon, 1981; Simon and Kahn, 1984). This section describes an accounting system that can help to perform the task and illustrates it with a rough and partial accounting of the human causes of global climate change. Since the conversion of inputs to useful outputs is never entire, it is fair to say economic activity inevitably stresses the environment by generating residual wastes. Until almost the end of the nineteenth century, refrigeration was a limited technology, based almost entirely on natural sources of supply. Some point to "humanistic" values, derived from the Enlightenment, that put human wants ahead of nature and presume that human activity (especially technology) can solve all problems that may arise (Ehrenfeld, 1978). For example, in 1986 a National Research Council study committee composed of economists and demographers concluded that slower population growth might assist less-developed countries in developing policies and institutions to protect the environment, but could find little empirical work on the link between population growth and environmental degradation (National Research Council, 1986). Corporations could also write off losses on Area-. It seems reasonable that the social institutions that control the exchange of goods and services and that structure the decisions of large human groups should have a strong influence on the effects of human activity on the global environment. Burning fossil fuels Fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal contain carbon dioxide t Important questions should be studied at different time scales. Table 3-9 provides a summary representation of the extremes of these patterns, presented as ideal types (actual land use almost always has features of both types). The rapid increase in Chinese coal consumptionfrom 62 million tons (Mt) in 1952 to 812 Mt in 1985can be traced to industrialization, electrification, and population growth (Xi et al., 1989). Land Tenure Rights For centuries, it has been the legal practice to grant rights of possession to whoever deforests a piece of Brazilian land. In the future, however, the properties of concern to humanity are likely to changeultra-violet radiation, after all, has been of global concern only since the 1960s. It explores how the attitudes and actions of individuals, governments, and organizations intertwine to leave their mark on the health of the planet. ables, some of which might have to be constructed for the purpose. Three case studies illustrate the various ways h Research is critically needed on the ways consumer demand changes as income increases, the effects of national policies on patterns of production and consumer demand, the effects of agricultural intensity on economic growth and the environment, and the causes of shifts from more to less energy-and materials-intensive economies. Driving forces generally act in combination with each other. All the relationships are equally real and important, yet answers derived at each level are incomplete. Economic growth and energy intensity are closely interrelated and very difficult to forecast. The highest priority for research is to build understanding of the processes connecting human activity and environmental change. All the human causes of global environmental change happen through a subset of proximate causes, which directly alter aspects of the environment in ways that have global effects. (1990:Table 2.8). By contrast, 22 percent of Chinese coal is converted to electric power, with an overall efficiency of only 29-31 percent (Kinzelbach, 1989; Xi et al., 1989). Experience so far indicates that consumption patterns shift toward services as per capita income rises, suggesting that the process of growth itself may induce less than proportional increases in environmental stress. Our warming ice sheets may take centuries to disappear completely but, when they do, the replacement of reflective-ice by heat-absorbing rock will warm our planet yet further. If all else is equal, the greater the number of people, the greater the demands placed on the environment for the provision of resources and the absorption of waste and pollutants. The effects of technology on the environments of poor countries may reflect the fact that much of the technological innovation adopted in poor countries originated in rich countries, which face different economic and environmental problems. China's economy is far more energy-intensive than that of most other countries or, put another way, China gets much less economic output from each unit of energy. CFC 22 production doubled between 1977 and 1984 (e.g., fast-food packaging), as did CFC 113 production (electronics industry). Other writers claim that a change in environmental ethics is necessary to prevent global environmental disaster (e.g., Stone, 1987; Sagoff, 1988). Yet understanding the human sidehuman causes of and responses to environmental changehas not yet received sustained attention. Taken together, the cases illustrate human causes that operate through both industrial and land-use activities and in both developing and devel-. If, as the planners intended, settlers had migrated from the poor, drought-stricken northeast to settle along the trans-Amazon highway, they might have developed the area intensively, with permanent, smallholder farming and agroforestry, and limited deforestation. For comparison, the largely computer-based predictions published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change imply that quadrupling carbon-dioxide concentrations should increase temperatures by between 3C and 9C. While this rapid population growth, coupled with the other four driving forces, is at the root of climate change, ascribing the 'blame' for climate change to a growing human population is overly simplistic. This is a serious limitation because, for environmental resources such as the stratospheric ozone layer, the only markets are imperfect. It matters which pattern of goods and services is produced. Deforestation favors species that occur only in highly disturbed areas, such as weeds, mosquitoes, and cattle, and that spread disease, compete with native organisms, and change the soil structure (Denevan, 1981). Where controversy tends to arise is over the relative primacy and hierarchical ordering of attitudes and beliefs relative to other causal factors, especially the degree to which beliefs and attitudes can be given causal force in their own right or are products of more fundamental forces. And given the current level of knowledge about the functioning of command economies, even if policy changes were known in advance, the success of their implementation, and therefore their precise effects on energy productivity, would be hard to predict. In the presence of sunlight, CFC molecules became chemical agents capable of destroying many times their number of ozone molecules. Greenhouse gas emission is a major human causes of climate change, and their sources include transportation, electricity production, burning fossil fuel in industries, commercial and re There is one final lesson of the CFC story that is most ironic of all. An early argument in this vein attributed the modern environmental crisis to the separation of spirit and nature in the Judeo-Christian tradition (White, 1967); another traces the rise of capitalism with its materialist values and social and economic structures back to Protestant theology (Weber, 1958). The decline in rural population density is reflected in the phrase, "Quando chega o boi, o homen sai," (When the cattle arrive, the men leave) (Browder, 1988:254). The critique of capitalism can be criticized for relying on a global, highly generalizing contrast between capitalist market economies and precapitalist, subsistence, socially undifferentiated groups that presumably maintain a delicate balance with the natural environment. 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