Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. In 2015, Russia launched a military intervention. It has not overpromised and is pursuing an active diplomatic strategy, which has cost Russia very little in blood or treasure. It is easier to grasp Russian strategy by contrasting it with Chinese strategy. It states that Moscow will continue to contribute to stability in the region and focus on the "political and diplomatic resolution of conflicts." Despite tensions at the beginning of the Syrian conflicts, Russia has maintained excellent relations with Turkey, the Second Armed Force of NATO and the strategic key to the link between the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Therefore, Russia is trying to drive regional sentiment against Turkey. Russia's Strategy in the Middle East Russia's Strategy in the Middle East . Russia promotes its ability to interact with many state and nonstate actors in the Middle East; most of Moscow's relationships are best characterized as transactional and are bounded by "insurmountable obstacles.". When it comes to Russia or its President, Vladimir Putin, the world interprets Russian firepower as a sheer military muscle, or at best, manipulative cyber warfare. Russia is seemingly resurgent in the Middle East, using a short-term focused, transactional approach to develop diplomatic and economic relationships across the region. In the Middle East, Russian propaganda fuels conspiracy thinking, feeding on the region's existing proclivities. October 5, 2020. 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This Perspective seeks to identify the important elements of Russian interests in the Middle East beyond Syria, to define the nature of Russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a Russian strategy in the Middle East. Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND; Ph.D. Interestingly, Moscow has also managed to drive a deep wedge between the UAE’s arch-foe Iran and Turkey. The Russian Foreign Ministry has stated, “Russia and the UAE are consistent supporters of the settlement of conflicts and crises in this strategically important region of the world using political methods, through an inclusive dialogue that takes into account legitimate interests and concerns of all parties involved. Does the fact that Russia outplayed the United States on Syria suffice as evidence of Moscow’s “grand strategy” for the broader region? This perception is at least partly accurate. Russia’s Waning Influence. iTunes. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, which caught many by surprise, seemingly heralded Moscow’s triumphant return to the Middle East. As of late 2016, this lack of focus on Russian activity in the broader Middle East had left the important question of Moscow's regional strategy and longer-term intent all but unaddressed. Approach to the World, How Law Enforcement Can Mitigate Bias in Machine Learning Decision Aids, Helping Mothers Return to Work Is a Gender Equality Issue, Who Gets Care When Hospitals Are Overwhelmed? Clear Policies Are Often Lacking, Strategies for Pushing North Korea Toward Denuclearization, Getting to Know Military Caregivers and Their Needs, Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change, Improving Psychological Wellbeing and Work Outcomes in the UK. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, which caught many by surprise, seemingly heralded Moscow’s triumphant return to the Middle East. Hence Russia interprets its Middle East strategy as autonomous from the Sunni-Shite clash and absolutely non-ideological – and this is exactly the Westerners’ mistake – while the Middle East is obviously central to Russian security, but equally irrelevant to the security of NATO which, however, has de facto lost Turkey. With the Russian intervention in Syria, Russia is militarily back in the Middle East for the first time since the Cold War. September 29, 2020. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, which caught many by surprise, seemingly heralded Moscow’s triumphant return to the Middle East. Podcasts Home; ECFR's World in 30 Minutes; ECFR Clips; Event Recordings; Subscribe to Podcasts; Subscribe to our podcasts. Russia has goals, but to Western observers they appear to be either transactional or, in the longer term, generalizable to the point that they constitute broad precepts rather than global, regional, or state-specific strategies. Russia in the Middle East: Part Six. Middle East states use Russia as an alternative and a signal to the West. Before doing anything, policymakers must recognize reality: The Russians are not going away, they have a strategy to weaken the West, and it starts in the Middle East. Executive Summary. From sidelines to centre stage . What are the elements of Russian interests in the Middle East beyond Syria? Lack of Strategy: Twenty years after the end of the Cold War, Russia has not developed a coherent foreign policy towards the Middle East, said Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher. The decision to increase Russia’s presence in the Middle East was also determined by economic drivers. Saudi Arabia has given Russian President Vladimir Putin the red-carpet treatment. Communications Officer Kadri Liik @KadriLiik on Twitter. She said that when Russia started intervening in Syria, it was like a shock and awe campaign. Russia, however, is pursuing this strategy not because it wants to be a major leader in the Middle East, but because it wants to accumulate as much influence as possible. Russia's Strategy for the Middle East: Stabilize, Revitalize, Create Chaos. Russia’s Middle East Power Play By Vance Serchuk. About Vance Serchuk September 12, 2019 10:32 AM. The Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS.edu) is the largest public policy Ph.D. program in the nation and the only program based at an independent public policy research organization—the RAND Corporation. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE236.html. There’s an intense debate raging within the Alternative and Independent media over whether Russia’s contemporary Mideast strategy amounts to “balancing” or “betraying” the Resistance given the Eurasian Great Power’s extremely close military cooperation with “Israel” in Syria. Subscribe to the weekly Policy Currents newsletter to receive updates on the issues that matter most. Erdoğan’s Azeri separatist narrative, following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, has caused fissures in the Iran-Turkey relationship. The title of this seminar/workshop is “Russia’s Strategy in the Middle East.” And to me that suggest two things: one, that there is one, a strategy for the Middle East, and that, two, that other countries also have other strategies in the Middle East. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. The research was conducted by the Center for Middle East Public Policy. Russia’s Middle East Power Play By Vance Serchuk. To some in the United States, Russia may look like a declining power. September 8, 2020. Sladden, James, Becca Wasser, Ben Connable, and Sarah Grand-Clement, Environmental and Natural Resource Management, Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, Rethinking the U.S. All the alliances that Trump stitched so painstakingly begin crumbling as Biden era begins. Russia’s Waning Influence. The Middle East states have the greatest power and agency to determine the viability of any Russian strategy. Largely absent from the Middle East for the better part of the previous two decades, Russia intervened to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime and reasserted itself as a … Russia in the Middle East: Part Five. Tactical and more targeted contacts with the region have also been determined by President Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic strategy, his perception of the Arab Spring and the domestic political situation in Russia. Your email address will not be published. In the quarter century after the end of the Cold War, Russia and Turkey made a spectacular transition from age-old adversity to mutual respect and understanding, despite the many differences. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School, by James Sladden, Becca Wasser, Ben Connable, Sarah Grand-Clement. Cyprus, for instance, coordinates with Moscow to pressurise a belligerent Ankara. Absent deeper commitments, Russia is beholden to other actors, dynamics and events to create windows of opportunity. Russia, however, is pursuing this strategy not because it wants to be a major leader in the Middle East, but because it wants to accumulate as much influence as possible. Russia has been playing a more active role in the Middle East in the last five years, and before committing to strategic cooperation with Russia, it is helpful to judge Russia’s objectives and strategies in the region. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. In 2011, it looked as if the Arab Spring uprisings would deal a further blow to Russia's declining influence in the Middle East, by toppling Syrian President -Assad, one of Bashar alMoscow's few remaining allies in the region. Of course, Russia would be the biggest gainer if the UAE and Iran focus their energies on reining in Turkey, rather than fighting each other. Russia may not have a clear ends-driven regional strategy; it constantly seeks to improve its short-term economic, military, and political advantages while reducing the short-term advantages of prospective adversaries. This website uses cookies. 109 Nicu Popescu and Stanislav Secrieru Annex Abbreviations 117 Notes on the contributors 119 11 9 10 8 . Russian Strategy in the Middle East. The title of this seminar/workshop is “Russia’s Strategy in the Middle East.” And to me that suggest two things: one, that there is one, a strategy for the Middle East, and that, two, that other countries also have other strategies in the Middle East. Moscow is bringing together friends and foes to a common objective- combating Erdoğan’s belligerent Turkey. The 2015 Russian military intervention in Syria was a pivotal moment for Moscow’s Middle East policy. With change sweeping across the region, Russia will be unable to formulate a meaningful, lasting strategy in the foreseeable future, he added. India’s top investigative agency CBI begins probing Cambridge Analytica, Facebook set to be nailed, China may get aggressive on the Indian border again and is set to lose more heads this time, A fuming Netanyahu and an angry MBS – Why the USA will lose both Saudi and Israel together, Biden’s reversal of Trump’s Israel policy is a disaster in making and can turn Middle East into a searing inferno, Israelis are now racing sports cars in Saudi Arabia. Simply stated, there is no comparison. Russia, trying to restore its great power status, accrues influence in the Middle East. While Russia does have a long-term strategy in the Middle East, it is freighted with significant restraints and constraints. But Russia’s Middle East strategy holds clear limitations and has real practical drawbacks. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/16/the-middle-east-needs-a-steady-boyfriend But Putin might have just played a sharp diplomatic move on Ankara, by isolating Erdoğan’s Turkey in all conflict areas including the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya, South Caucasus and Syria. RSS. Little do they know that it can lead to a mutiny. With change sweeping across the region, Russia will be unable to formulate a meaningful, lasting strategy in the foreseeable future, he added. Please enter your username or email address to reset your password. Russia has therefore succeeded in cornering Turkey on every front. “Both the unrest in Syria and the Arab Spring presented Russia with the opportunity to increase its engagement in the region and were accompanied by a rapid uptick in Russian economic and political activities across the region,” explains Becca Wasser for RAND. 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